Election ’02 Campaign Spotlight, No. 6

(A newsletter on American politics) (3790)





Issue No. 6                                      September 2002





This newsletter is provided by the U.S. Department of State's Office


of International Information Programs in an effort to explain the


"how" and "why" in addition to the "who," "what" and "when" of the


2002 election campaign in the United States. The next newsletter will


be issued in October. All previous newsletters are available on our


website at:


http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/rights/democracy/spot.htm





This issue includes:





-- Observers Undecided Whether Elections "Local" or "National"


-- Primaries Held in 12 States and the District of Columbia


-- Thirty-Six Gubernatorial Seats Are At Stake


-- Campaign Trail "Tidbits"


-- Pundit "Pearls"





Observers Undecided Whether Elections "Local" or "National"


By Stuart Gorin


Campaign Spotlight Editor





Focus on U.S. elections traditionally intensifies in early September,


following summer vacations, the Labor Day holiday and the last big


round of state primaries.





Political observers are still undecided about whether the November 5


midterm will be "local" or "national" in nature.





It was the late Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill who once said "all


politics is local," meaning that regardless of the issue, it is how it


affects the constituency at home that matters. When the issues reflect


the president’s agenda and popularity, however, a local election can


take on national significance.





National Journal political analyst Charlie Cook said that if each race


is examined on its own "local" terms on such factors as campaign


issues, money spent and voting patterns, Republicans seem likely to


hold on to control of the House of Representatives –- where they


currently hold a six-seat majority -– and might even pick up a seat or


two or three.





However, if the elections become "nationalized" on social issues such


as health care and social security, considering recent national polls


and historical trends of midterm elections, Cook said it would be easy


to conclude that the Democrats would gain a few House seats and quite


possibly tip control in their favor. During most past midterm


elections, the party of the incumbent president lost congressional


seats.





Considering possible changes in the Senate, Cook said either party


could wind up with a narrow majority if the elections are localized


and the Democrats could add to their current one-seat majority if they


are nationalized.





Strategists in both parties say that while congressional elections


normally depend heavily on local issues, the war on terrorism and


President Bush’s campaign involvement in many races have made him an


issue, too. He has been more active than most presidents in past


midterm elections, actively recruiting candidates, traveling to states


on their behalf and raising millions of dollars in campaign funds.





The economy is expected to be an important national issue in the


election as well, due to a growing budget deficit and declining stock


prices. Economic factors on the local level also could come into play


if conditions adversely affect local businesses and communities.





The gain or loss of just a few seats in Congress could make a major


difference in how the president’s agenda is treated during the next


two years, especially his budget and his judicial nominees.





Karlyn Bowman, a political analyst at the American Enterprise


Institute (AEI) who tracks public opinion polls, said Bush’s approval


rating remains high even though it has dropped around 20 points in the


past year to the mid-60s.





Concerning the generic congressional ballot, which does not mention


any politician by name but simply asks respondents their party


preference in general, support moves back and forth between the two


major political parties. She said the most recent polls have the


Republicans rated higher than the Democrats on voters’ choices for


their own congressional districts.





Another AEI political analyst, Norman Ornstein, said there hasn’t been


another midterm election since the American Civil War in the 1860s in


which party control of Congress was divided and the two chambers were


as evenly split as they currently are.





Ornstein said he does not see that parity changing much after the


election. There are only 8-10 Senate races and about two dozen House


races that are tossups, and they are evenly divided between the two


parties, he said. The Democrats would have to win three-fourths of


those House races to regain control of the chamber, Ornstein added.


The likely outcome, he said, would be single digit majorities for


either party in both the Senate and the House.





Both parties have equally favorable ratings, said CNN analyst William


Schneider, who pointed out that while a worsening economy and recent


corporate scandals help the Democrats, the Republicans’ image is


improved because of the president’s high approval ratings and support


for the war against terrorism. Schneider refers to this effort as a


display of "social solidarity."





Primaries Held in 12 States and the District of Columbia





On the busiest primary election day of the year, voters went to the


polls in 12 states and the District of Columbia September 10 to vote


in more than 50 Senate, House, gubernatorial and mayoral races.





The elections did not receive the media attention they normally would,


however, because America focused much of its attention instead on


commemoration of the terrorist events of last September 11.





Highlighting the elections were the Senate race in New Hampshire,


where Republican Bob Smith became the first sitting senator in a


decade to lose in a primary, and the gubernatorial race in Florida,


where former Clinton administration Attorney General Janet Reno was


behind in a contest marred by elections system problems.





Smith, who briefly left the Republican Party in 1999 for a short-lived


independent presidential race but then returned, was challenged in his


Senate reelection bid by Congressman John Sununu, the son of the


former chief of staff to former President George H.W. Bush. The


contest was marked by personal attacks and a number of conflicting


opinion polls.





Following a nine-point margin of victory, Sununu will now face New


Hampshire’s outgoing Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen in the


November 5 Senate contest for Smith’s seat.





In Florida, where Republican Governor Jeb Bush had no primary


opposition in his reelection bid, attorney Bill McBride led Reno in


the Democratic gubernatorial primary by about 8,000 votes out of more


than one million cast. The final tally was not completed or certified,


however, due to the glitches that delayed voting in some precincts and


sent hundreds of people home from the polls without voting. Officials


said the problems were caused by both equipment failure and a lack of


training on new voting machinery.





Primaries also were held September 10 in Arizona, Connecticut,


Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota, New York, North Carolina, Rhode Island,


Vermont, Wisconsin and the District of Columbia. No House of


Representatives incumbents seeking reelection were defeated in any of


the primaries.





The other Senate contests were in North Carolina, where former Labor


Secretary and Red Cross president Elizabeth Dole won on the Republican


side, and Minnesota, where Democrat Paul Wellstone seeks reelection.





Dole, who had the endorsement and support of retiring Senator Jesse


Helms, easily defeated six primary challengers and will now face the


Democratic primary winner, former Clinton White House Chief of Staff


Erskine Bowles. The Raleigh News and Observer newspaper says the


battle will be between "two well-connected and seasoned Washington


insiders."





Wellstone’s November challengers will be Republican former St. Paul


Mayor Norm Coleman and Green Party writer Ray Tricomo.





The District of Columbia’s mayoral race was unusual in that while the


incumbent, Democrat Anthony Williams, won by a large margin, he had


been denied a place on the ballot because of alleged petition


irregularities and chose to run a "write-in" campaign. A "write-in"


candidate is one whose name is not officially put on the ballot, and a


voter has to actually write down the candidate’s name.





In earlier primaries, in Alaska, Republican Senator Ted Stevens on


August 27 easily won his party’s nomination for reelection and in


November will face Democratic attorney Frank Vondersaar. By a


two-to-one margin, voters rejected a proposal for statewide instant


runoff elections, which would have allowed for candidates for office


to be marked in descending preferential order.





Also on August 27, in Oklahoma, Democratic former Governor David


Walters and attorney Tom Boettcher were the top two vote finishers in


their party’s four-way Senate primary and will take part in a


September 17 runoff election with the winner facing Republican Senator


Jim Inhofe in November.





Thirty Six Gubernatorial Seats Are At Stake





There are 36 gubernatorial seats at stake in the November 5 midterm


election: 23 currently held by Republicans, 11 by Democrats and two by


independents.





Each state sets its own rules about whether an incumbent can stand for


reelection, and if so, for how many terms. While governors in 48


states serve for four years, New Hampshire and Vermont have two-year


terms.





Following is a late summer look at the gubernatorial races


state-by-state:





-- Alabama: Political observers say Democratic Governor Donald


Siegelman is favored to win a second term in office in the November 5


election. His Republican opponent will be Congressman Bob Riley, the


winner of his party’s June 4 primary.





-- Alaska: Democratic Governor Tony Knowles is precluded by state law


from serving a third term. Democratic Lieutenant Governor Fran Ulmer


and Republican Senator Frank Murkowski were the winners of their


respective parties’ primaries on August 27. Murkowski is considered


the favorite, however an upset by Ulmer cannot be ruled out.





-- Arizona: Republican Governor Jane Hull cannot seek a second term.


Republican former Congressman Matt Salmon and Democratic Attorney


General Janet Napolitano easily won their respective parties’


primaries on September 10. Pundits predict a tense battle between


Salmon, Napolitano and former State Secretary of State Richard


Mahoney, who is running as an independent.





-- Arkansas: Republican Governor Mike Huckabee is favored to win a


second term. His Democratic opponent, State Treasurer Jimmie Lou


Fisher, was nominated in the party’s May 21 primary.





-- California: Democratic Governor Gray Davis is favored to win a


second term. Businessman Bill Simon, the winner of the March 5


Republican primary, is his November opponent.





-- Colorado: Republican Governor Bill Owens is favored to win a second


term. His Democratic opponent will be businessman Rollie Heath, winner


of his party’s August 13 primary.





-- Connecticut: Neither incumbent Republican Governor John Rowland,


who is seeking a third term, nor Democratic former State Comptroller


Bill Curry faced primary opposition.





-- Florida: Republican Governor Jeb Bush had no primary opponent in


his quest for a second term. On the Democratic side, results from the


September 10 primary were still being tabulated. Attorney Bill McBride


held a small lead over former Clinton Administration Attorney General


Janet Reno.





-- Georgia: Democratic Governor Roy Barnes is favored to win a second


term. His Republican opponent will be former State Senator Sonny


Perdue, winner of his party’s August 20 primary.





-- Hawaii: Democratic Governor Benjamin Cayetano cannot seek a third


term. His party will hold a primary on September 21 between Lieutenant


Governor Mazie Hirono, State Representative Ed Case and businessman


D.G. Anderson to determine who will oppose the Republican candidate,


former Maui Mayor Linda Lingle.





-- Idaho: Republican Governor Dirk Kempthorne is favored in his quest


to seek a second term. His Democratic opponent will be newspaper


publisher Jerry Brady, the winner of his party’s May 28 primary.





-- Illinois: Republican Governor George Ryan is retiring. Republican


State Attorney General Jim Ryan, who is no relation, and Democratic


Congressman Rod Blagojevich were the winners of their parties’


respective primaries March 19. Recent public opinion polls show


Blagojevich leading.





-- Iowa: Democratic Governor Tom Vilsack, who is seeking a second


term, is ahead in the polls over Republican attorney Doug Gross, who


won his party’s primary on June 4.





-- Kansas: Republican Governor Bill Graves cannot seek a third term.


The winners of the August 6 primary were Republican State Treasurer


Tim Shallenburger and Democratic State Insurance Commissioner Kathleen


Sebelius. Polls show Shallenburger leading.





-- Maine: Independent Governor Angus King cannot seek a third term.


The winners of the June 11 primaries were Democratic Congressman John


Baldacci and Republican former State Representative Peter Cianchette.


Polls show the state leaning Democratic.





-- Maryland: Democratic Governor Parris Glendening cannot seek a third


term. Democratic Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and


Republican Congressman Robert Ehrlich easily won their respective


parties’ primaries September 10.





-- Massachusetts: Republican Govenor Jane Swift is retiring, leaving


the party’s unopposed nomination to businessman Mitt Romney, the


organizer of the 2002 Winter Olympics. His Democratic opponent will be


determined in a September 17 primary between State Treasurer Shannon


O’Brien, State Senate President Thomas Birmingham, former Labor


Secretary Robert Reich, former Democratic National Committee chair


Steve Grossman and former State Senator Warren Tolman.





-- Michigan: Republican Governor John Engler cannot seek a fourth


term. Following the state’s August 6 primaries, polls show the


Democratic candidate, State Attorney General Jennifer Granholm,


leading over Republican Lieutenant Governor Dick Posthumus.





-- Minnesota: The race to succeed retiring Independent Governor Jesse


Ventura will be between Republican State Representative Tim Pawlenty;


Democratic State Senator Roger Moe; and Timothy Penny, a former


Democratic Congressman representing the Independence Party -– all of


whom won endorsement at their respective parties’ state conventions.





-- Nebraska: Republican Governor Mike Johanns, who seeks a second


term, is favored over Democratic businessman Stormy Dean, the winner


of his party’s May 14 primary.





-- Nevada: Republican Governor Kenny Guinn, who seeks a second term,


is favored over Democratic State Senator Joe Neal, winner of his


party’s September 3 primary.





-- New Hampshire: Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen, following three


terms in office, is running for the Senate. Democratic State Senator


Mark Fernald and Republican businessman Craig Benson won their


respective parties’ primaries September 10.





-- New Mexico: Republican Governor Gary Johnson cannot seek a third


term. Democratic former Energy Secretary Bill Richardson and


Republican State Representative John Sanchez won their parties’


respective primaries June 4. Opinion polls show Richardson leading.





-- New York: Republican Governor George Pataki had no primary


opposition in his quest for a third term. Democratic State Comptroller


Carl McCall won his party’s September 10 primary. Andrew Cuomo, former


Clinton administration secretary of housing and urban development and


the son of former Governor Mario Cuomo, dropped out of the Democratic


race one week before the primary following low polling results.


Businessman Thomas Golisano will be on the November ballot as well,


representing the Independence Party. Polls show Pataki in the lead,


however observers say he will be challenged strongly by McCall on the


left and Golisano on the right.





-- Ohio: Republican Governor Bob Taft is favored to win a second term.


His Democratic opponent, nominated in the May 7 primary, is former


Cuyahoga County Commissioner Tim Hagan.





-- Oklahoma: Republican Governor Frank Keating cannot seek a third


term. Republican former Congressman Steve Largent won his party’s


August 27 primary and his Democratic opponent will be determined in a


September 17 runoff election between State Senator Brad Henry and


businessman Vince Orza.





-- Oregon: Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber cannot seek a third


term. Democratic former State Supreme Court Justice Ted Kulongoski,


who won his party’s May 21 mail-in primary, is favored over Republican


former State Representative Kevin Mannix.





-- Pennsylvania: Republican Governor Mark Schweiker is retiring.


Democratic former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell, winner of his party’s


May 21 primary, is leading in the polls over Republican State Attorney


General Mike Fisher.





-- Rhode Island: Republican Governor Lincoln Almond cannot seek a


third term. The winners of their respective parties’ primaries


September 10 were Republican businessman Donald Carcieri and


Democratic former State Senator Myrth York.





-- South Carolina: Democratic Governor Jim Hodges is favored in his


quest for a second term over Republican former Congressman Mark


Sanford, the winner of a June 25 runoff election.





-- South Dakota: Republican Governor William Janklow cannot seek a


third term. Republican former State Senator Mike Rounds, the winner of


his party’s June 4 primary, leads in the polls over Democratic


university president Jim Abbott.





-- Tennessee: Republican Governor Don Sundquist cannot seek a third


term. Observers say there is no clear favorite between the August 1


primary winners, Republican Congressman Van Hilleary and Democratic


former Nashville Mayor Phil Bredesen.





-- Texas: Republican Governor Rick Perry seeks a first full term after


moving up from lieutenant governor following George Bush’s


presidential victory. Perry is in a close race with businessman Tony


Sanchez, winner of the Democratic primary March 12.





-- Vermont: Democratic Governor Howard Dean is retiring for a possible


2004 presidential run. The candidates to succeed him are Democratic


Lieutenant Governor Doug Racine and Republican State Treasurer Jim


Douglas.





-- Wisconsin: Republican Governor Scott McCallum is seeking a first


full term after moving up from lieutenant governor when Tommy Thompson


became the Bush administration secretary of health and human services.


On the Democratic side, State Attorney General Jim Doyle won a


three-way primary September 10.





-- Wyoming: Republican Governor Jim Geringer cannot seek a third term.


Republican former State Representative Eli Bebout, who won his party’s


August 20 primary, is favored over Democratic former U.S. Attorney


Dave Freudenthal.





Campaign Trail "Tidbits"





-- Touch-Screen Vote: Clearing the way for California counties to


replace outdated voting equipment, a federal judge has dismissed a


lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the state’s first


touch-screen voting system. Last March voters approved a proposition


to replace punch card voting systems like the type that caused


problems in the 2000 presidential election in Florida. Proponents say


the new system eliminates damaged, mismarked or over-voted ballots,


while opponents allege it is open to fraud and manipulation.





-- Campaign Finance Waiver: An alliance of advocacy groups is asking


the Federal Election Commission to be exempted from the new campaign


finance law that is due to take effect after the November 5 elections.


The law’s backers contend that many groups have been using phony


"issue ads" to get around a ban on the use of corporate or union money


to influence federal elections, while the organizations contend the


new ad restrictions should not apply to public charities and private


foundations that urge viewers to contact members of Congress on key


issues at election time.





-- Public Financing: Four states -– Arizona, Maine, Massachusetts and


Vermont –- are offering public funds to help candidates run for


office, in an effort to take private money out of politics. Hundreds


of candidates have accepted the offer and are running so-called "clean


election campaigns." They must prove they are viable by gathering


hundreds of individual $5 contributions and then they receive set


amounts of cash on which to run their campaigns.





-- Appointing a Successor: If Alaska’s Republican Senator Frank


Murkowski wins his state’s gubernatorial race in November -– and he is


heavily favored to do so -- he will resign his seat and then have the


rare opportunity to name his successor. That is because the Alaska


legislature passed a bill allowing the next governor to appoint an


interim successor until the 2004 election.





-- Election Law Quirk: If Missouri’s Democratic Senator Jean Carnahan,


who is in a virtual tie in the latest polls, loses in November, the


Republican Party could briefly regain control of the Senate from the


Democrats -– who currently hold a one-seat advantage -- by immediately


taking over the seat. That is because Carnahan was appointed to the


position, not elected, and Missouri law says the appointment is valid


until a successor is "elected and qualified."





-- Traficant: Even though former Ohio Democractic Congressman James


Traficant was expelled by the House of Representatives and is now in a


Pennsylvania prison serving an eight-year sentence for corruption, he


has created a reelection campaign committee and is planning to have


offices opened up in his old district. A supporter named James Bunosky


said he has been named Traficant’s campaign manager and will speak on


his behalf at public events. Last month, a local Elections Board ruled


it did not have the right to remove Traficant’s name from the November


5 ballot.





Pundit "Pearls"





-- USA Today writer Susan Page: "President Bush isn’t on the ballot


this fall, but much of his presidency will be at stake. The results of


Senate, House and gubernatorial races in November will determine what


compromises the president will have to strike over the next two years


to enact his legislative priorities, whether he’ll be able to force


confirmation votes on his judicial nominees, how much he can count on


big-state governors to boost his reelection campaign in 2004 -— even


how many congressional subpoenas his administration is likely to


face…. The election halfway through Bush’s term also will be seen as


sort of a referendum on him and his first two years on the job. That


may be the case more so than for most presidents because of the way


Bush took office last year –- after a disputed election in which he


lost the popular vote. The first big Election Day since then will test


whether he has coattails and the Republican message has legs."





-- Baltimore Sun writer Paul West: "Two years after a dead-even


presidential vote, a nation still split down the middle is heading


into the midterm election with both houses of Congress up for grabs.


Every possible result is within reach: a complete takeover of Capitol


Hill by either party; a switch of control in both chambers; or no


change, with Democrats still running the Senate and Republicans the


House…. Although Democrats can point to factors that might normally


favor their candidates –- a struggling economy, questions about the


ethics of corporate executives and deepening voter pessimism about the


direction the country is headed -– these have yet to generate a


tailwind for Democratic candidates, according to pollsters. A national


tide might yet develop, in the ebb and flow of public opinion before


Election Day. Adding to what some see as an unusually volatile


election season would be the impact of unforeseen events leading up to


November 5, from another stock market tumble or terrorist attack to


U.S. military action against Iraq."





-- Washington Times writer Donald Lambro: "The biggest obstacle that


Republicans face in this year’s governors’ races is their past


success. Their numbers tell the story: Of 36 governorships up in


November, Republicans hold 23 of them. Many of the Republican-held


seats are in heavily Democratic states in the Northeast and Midwest


that have been under Republican control for a decade or more, but


where labor unions remain strong. Democratic voters are plentiful, and


some of the Republican Party’s most popular governors are not running


for reelection. Of the 20 open seats up for grabs, 12 are being


vacated by Republicans. That’s why the Democrats are expected to make


net gains in governorships in November, a claim the Republicans no


longer dispute. But the Republican Party also is poised to pick up


from four to six Democrat-held statehouses, and thus hopes to keep the


net loss to a minimum."





Newsletter Editor: Stuart Gorin, IIP/T/DHR


Fax:  202-619-6520, E-mail: ejdemos@pd.state.gov